Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be buying and selling between $60,000 and $70,000 (USD), about 48% under its all-time excessive reached on October 6, 2025, however there are rising expectations for additional declines this 12 months.
“Everyone seems to be ready for $40,000 in Bitcoin,” a dealer referred to as Recto Fencer commented from his imaginative and prescient on February 24, 2026. In response to his evaluation, Bitcoin’s present decline is a repeat of the sample that occurred in Might 2022 Over the last bear cycle.
At the moment, costs had been in a interval of flattening after falling sharply, after which falling to decrease ranges. On this sense, the sideways part that Bitcoin has exhibited over the previous three weeks will be thought of as a downward break. That is illustrated by the analyst within the following graph.
Nonetheless, Recto Fencer recalled: In 2022, “many bassists “They tried to purchase low and missed the underside.”. For him, there’s a “lesson” on this cycle. The secret’s to not attempt to enter by guessing the underside worth.
His feedback come amid rising predictions of a backside for Bitcoin this 12 months. The Polymarket prediction platform exhibits that the best stakes (each for and in opposition to) will fall from $45,000, whereas Karshi will drop to $44,000.
Bitcoin’s historic cycle repeats
Echoing this, Nick O'Neill, co-founder of market, leisure and training firm Bodogos, mentioned on February twenty second: Technical evaluation is turning into established Alongside along with his bearish thesis. In response to his imaginative and prescient, “$40,000 might arrive” by the top of March.
Through the dialogue, he additionally famous that the Worry and Greed Index has fallen to five, the bottom stage for the reason that FTX chapter. “And all of the analysts I surveyed level to the identical alarming conclusion: it is a repeating four-year cycle,” he added.
This type of cycle implies that Bitcoin It’s all the time acknowledged that the top of a protracted bull interval is reached the 12 months after the halving, adopted by a bear market.. The newest version of this occasion, which halved the quantity of BTC issued each 4 years, was in 2024.
“Macro principle hasn't modified the sample,” O'Neill emphasised. He added, “Now we have not but reached a whole give up, so there’s a chance that it’ll fall additional.'' In his opinion, the one query is whether or not the 200-week shifting common, positioned at $58,000, can maintain because it in any other case would. Given the present bearish outlook, “frankly, that is going to interrupt his coronary heart,” he mentioned.
An error occurred whereas making an attempt to deduce the background
James Ford, an economist and director of the funding group Pragmatic Buyers, had beforehand raised an identical evaluation. In a report on February 6, when Bitcoin hit $60,000, its lowest stage in over a 12 months, he believed that if it follows previous patterns, Bitcoin might fall even decrease.
Over the last bear markets in 2022 and 2019, BTC costs fell by 84% and 77%, respectively, suggesting that the decline is turning into smaller and smaller. If this transfer repeats, costs might fall by about 75% from their all-time excessive earlier than stopping. That might be $31,000.
Nevertheless, Mr. Ford thought it clever to not attempt to pinpoint the precise backside of the bear market. As a substitute, he proposed a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) technique, which averages out acquisition prices by making common purchases.
This method is beneficial Along with the present zone, you additionally allocate capital to $57,000 and $40,000.a stage that acts as a help. The economist advised dividing the funding funds into 20%, 30% and 50% and deploying them at every stage or after a technical reversal is confirmed.
In any case, he cautioned that this method additionally comes with dangers, particularly within the present setting. “We’re getting into an unprecedented geopolitical period,” he mentioned, predicting that markets might face better strain.
However he argued that not like earlier cycles, “Bitcoin has a a lot better place, with institutional traders and even governments investing.” So it's bullish for the long run. His thesis is predicated on the inflow of institutional funding and the enduring shortage of Bitcoin.
This view comes as Bitcoin's decline exhibits correlation with the know-how sector within the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. That is largely because of the tariffs that Donald Trump carried out regardless of antagonistic courtroom rulings.
