Bitcoin's value motion has seen all of it: a five-digit plunge, regulatory crackdowns, trade collapses, and a bear market that lasted almost two years. By means of all these occasions, one document was unblemished. Bitcoin has by no means closed January, February, and March all within the purple in the identical 12 months. It hasn't occurred as soon as in my total buying and selling historical past. Nevertheless, with only some days left till March 2026, The information are presently on life assist.
Numbers that inform a narrative
Bitcoin is Working in the direction of the tip of March There’s a risk of shedding cash from the opening months to the total 12 months for 3 consecutive years, a setup that has by no means been recorded in our buying and selling historical past earlier than. coin glass Month-to-month Return Heatmap It describes the state of affairs with uncomfortable precision. January 2026 ended down 10.17%. February noticed a 14.94% loss, marking the primary consecutive shedding February following a 17.39% loss in 2025.
March now dangers ending in adverse territory. Bitcoin is buying and selling round $67,750 on the time of this writing, in comparison with its month-to-month opening value of $66,970 after the February shut. This brings the month-to-month return for March to roughly 0.31%, with one buying and selling day left till the month-to-month candle seal ends.
Bitcoin month-to-month returns (%). Supply: Coinglass
Cross-referencing all the historic information set, we see that no 12 months in Bitcoin's traceable value historical past (2013-2026) has had three consecutive purple month-to-month closes beginning that 12 months. January 2015 was down 33.05%, January 2018 was down 25.41%, and February 2014 was down 31.03%. However whereas in every case they recovered and recorded a inexperienced shut for no less than one of many three opening months, 2026 introduced no such reduction.
Risk of deficit for six consecutive months
Bitcoin is The long-running month-to-month deficit has ended. That is after reaching an all-time excessive of over $126,000 in October 2025. In consequence, February 2025 resulted in deficit for the fifth consecutive time, solely the second time in historical past. that Now your information are in danger. Relying on how March goes, we'll finish the six months within the purple.
The circumstances underpinning this efficiency are the convergence of pressures which have steadily elevated over the previous six months. For now, investor sentiment for Bitcoin has fallen to multi-year lows. Now on the lowest degree After the bear market in 2022.
As of now, all the first quarter of 2026 is exhibiting a adverse efficiency of -22.6%. The primary quarter of 2026 efficiency marks Bitcoin's weakest opening quarter since 2018, when it misplaced 50.7% of its worth between January and March. Injury within the first quarter of that 12 months was extra severe in absolute phrases, however in February it rose by 0.47%.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $67,750, with most traders nonetheless sooner or later away from writing their final strains. I didn't count on to see it An article written at the start of the 12 months.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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