Blockchain analytics agency Arkham has launched an Elo-style ranking system designed to check prediction market merchants based mostly on their accuracy.
Introducing: Prediction Market ELO
Some merchants proceed to win and guess on Polymarket over and over.
To make it simpler so that you can uncover, we’ve created a predictive market efficiency ranking (Elo) for Arkham Intel. Right here's the way it works: pic.twitter.com/NWg9WXxJIA
— Arkham (@arkham) June 29, 2026
Appropriate predictions improve a dealer's rating in comparison with different contributors. A profitable name made with a decrease implied chance receives a higher enhance than an final result that the market already considers doubtless.
The system doesn’t consider the scale of the stake, so small merchants with the next profitable price can rank greater than bigger contributors and generate extra earnings by way of bigger positions.
Arkam stated the scores are supposed to separate constant forecast efficiency from gross margins and buying and selling volumes.
Nonetheless, accuracy alone could not present a whole image of efficiency. This ranking doesn’t consider losses as a result of place sizing, danger administration, or commerce failures.
