Julio Moreno, Head of Analysis at CryptoQuant, not too long ago declared that Bitcoin is in a bear market that would final till the third quarter of 2026.
he isn’t alone. Bitwise's Matt Hogan and a rising refrain of organizations have been utilizing the label “bear” extra freely than ever since early 2023.
Nonetheless, those self same analysts usually use construction to hedge. Many monetary establishments proceed to take care of or add publicity whereas acknowledging the change in authorities.
This raises a definitional downside. If a bear market now not means capitulation or exit, what does it imply?
If the well-known four-year cycle is gone, as VanEck, K33 Analysis, and 21Shares every declare of their current reviews, how lengthy will the bear market final if the lunar calendar now not applies?
What constitutes a bear market
The standard monetary definition of a bear market is a place to begin.
The U.S. Securities and Change Fee defines a bear market as a decline of 20% or extra in a broad index over at the least two months. Bitcoin cleared that threshold a couple of months in the past.
From a peak of over $126,000 in early October 2025, BTC has fallen by about 41% to about $74,000 as of February 3. Based on headline requirements, the case is solved.
Nonetheless, Coinbase Institutional's analysis clearly states that the 20% threshold is “considerably arbitrary” and does not likely apply to cryptocurrencies, which might expertise 20% swings and not using a true regime change.
The truth is, analysts make the most of a dashboard that consists of three elements: value developments, positioning and derivatives, and demand and liquidity.
The value development is the obvious. CryptoQuant depends closely on the 365-day shifting common as a boundary marker.
Bitcoin is at present buying and selling beneath that stage, at round $101,448. CryptoQuant's bull rating index, which comprehensively measures on-chain well being, scored 20 factors out of 100, which is described as extraordinarily bearish territory.
Coinbase makes use of a 200-day shifting common to establish bear markets in its historic cycle evaluation, and Bitcoin continues to stay beneath that threshold.
Positioning and derivatives present a second sign. Glassnode's current Week On-Chain report paperwork circumstances that improve draw back sensitivity, together with rotation for draw back safety, a bearish bias within the choices market, and a seller gamma beneath zero.
Markets act defensively when merchants pay a premium to hedge in opposition to additional declines quite than to seize upside.
Demand and liquidity present the structural context. CoinShares estimates that enormous holders have bought about $29 billion of Bitcoin since October. Roughly $440 million has been drained from publicly traded digital asset merchandise for the reason that starting of the 12 months.
CryptoQuant and MarketWatch characterize the present regime as combining declining stablecoin liquidity with weak demand, typical components of a bear market.
The most recent world investor survey from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, carried out from December 10, 2025 to January 12, 2026, discovered that 26% of establishments say the market is at present in a bearish part. This consequence was up from simply 2% within the earlier survey.
Nonetheless, the identical survey revealed that 62% of establishments have held or elevated their net-long publicity since October, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued.
This disconnect is a trademark of the 2026 bear market. It’s not about capitulation, however about recognizing the regime whereas sustaining structural publicity.
The label “bear market” is changing into much less about who’s operating away and extra about who continues to be shopping for, though market sentiment stays dire.
When will this bear market finish?
To outline the tip of a bear market, we should be clear about what we imply by “finish.”
Probably the most rigorous strategy treats this as a regime change quite than a sentiment. Analysts establish three sensible triggers: a reversal of developments, a reversal of demand, and a normalization of danger urge for food.
A development restoration happens when Bitcoin recovers and maintains its long-term shifting common, corresponding to 200-day or 365-day, for a number of weeks.
Modulations in demand imply exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded merchandise transfer from subdued or destructive inflows to sustained inflows, slowing distributions to giant holders.
Normalization of danger urge for food signifies that choices bias returns to a balanced stage, lowering the demand for draw back safety and persistently constructing leverage.
The forward-looking eventualities are categorized into three time durations, every supported by particular analyst commentary.
The primary state of affairs is a basic crypto winter that lasts till mid or late 2026.
Julio Moreno recognized deeper potential paths of $70,000 in three to 6 months and $56,000 within the second half of 2026. This state of affairs assumes that demand stays weak, flows stay destructive, and Bitcoin fails in repeated makes an attempt to regain its shifting common. Bear market rallies happen, however they don't final.
The second state of affairs is a brief, shallow bear market lasting 3-6 months, characterised by risky, range-bound value actions, earlier than circumstances enhance within the second half of 2026.
CoinShares clearly expects a constructive state of affairs within the medium time period and a risky interval of 3-6 months as whale gross sales dry up by mid-2026.
On this framework, bear markets are extra a matter of time than depth. In different phrases, the higher restrict is proscribed till demand reverses, however the decrease restrict is maintained.
The third state of affairs treats bear markets as liquidity wave occasions quite than calendar-based cycles.
No matter what the halving clock says, the bear market will finish when demand and liquidity speed up once more. This maps on to CryptoQuant's demand-driven framework and avoids determinism as a consequence of half-lives. We acknowledge that the previous playbook could now not apply.
| state of affairs | horizon | what’s it appears like | Key triggers to observe | what would you do disable that |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| basic winter (Moreno path) | Mid/late 2026 | A failed rally. deeper retest | Steady assortment failures 200D/365D;weak present; Sustainable draw back hedge | Recuperate + Retain Past MA and Movement turns optimistic sustainably |
| brief and shallow bear (CoinShares Cross) | 3-6 months | Vary restricted chop. cap going through upwards | Stabilization of ETP flows. Slowdown/depletion of whale gross sales | Breakdown beneath key assist zones as a consequence of growing liquidation stress |
| Liquidity wave system (after 4 12 months cycle) | variable | Exit when liquidity and demand modifications, not on a calendar | International liquidity proxy, actual yield, stablecoin liquidity, demand hedging | Liquidity improves, however BTC nonetheless can not get better lengthy MA (suggesting structural weak spot) |
Is that this bear market smaller than earlier cycles?
The present drawdown of round 40% is already small in comparison with the standard 70%+ crypto winters of earlier cycles.
Nonetheless, the draw back eventualities by a number of analysts are concentrated round $55,000 to $60,000, suggesting that if realized, the overall drawdown will strategy the mid-50% vary.
Whereas that is nonetheless beneath historic extremes, it’s vital sufficient to qualify as a bear market by any normal.
The market can also be more and more polarized. Whereas Bitcoin retains its structural management, the remainder of the cryptocurrency market is performing a lot worse.
Coinbase and Glassnode reviews spotlight this via dominance indicators and defensive positioning actions. The market in 2026 will likely be Ok-shaped, and a “bear market” may have an uneven influence on asset lessons.
The four-year cycle is over, however what’s going to change it?
Van Eck argued that in 2025, the four-year cycle will break down, making the previous technique much less dependable.
K33 Analysis has launched a report entitled “The four-year cycle is lifeless, lengthy stay the King” which reveals the rationale for the change of presidency.
21Shares explains that this cycle is evolving and will prolong to 5 years as liquidity waves lengthen and institutional investor participation deepens.
The choice to the four-year clock is the liquidity and stream clock. This contains actual yields, world liquidity impulses, change traded fund and change traded product flows, stablecoin liquidity, and hedging demand.
CoinShares clearly frames Bitcoin's current turmoil by way of the connection between treasured metals and macro liquidity. Coinbase and Glassnode spotlight defensive posture in derivatives as a real-time posture indicator.
What a bear market interval means is that bear markets turn into extra frequent however much less extreme. If institutional flows present a decrease certain, markets could expertise extra frequent regime contractions quite than survival winters.
The rally could fail till demand and liquidity enhance, however the underlying construction may stop the form of multi-year capitulation that characterised previous cycles.
This creates a paradox. Bear markets can last more in calendar time, however they do much less harm in share phrases. Or it could finish sooner if demand modifications earlier than the previous cycle logic predicts.
In any case, the clock that dominated Bitcoin for a decade now not guidelines Bitcoin.
Checklists are extra essential than calendars
In 2026, whether or not there will likely be a bear market won’t be a single metric, however a guidelines.
Pattern breaks, demand hedging, demand and liquidity rollovers all level in the identical path. Bitcoin is in a bear market in most essential frameworks.
When it ends is dependent upon the timing of the demand cycle quite than the halving calendar. CoinShares expects a pointy decline in 3-6 months. We consider that CryptoQuant may attain additional lows within the second half of this 12 months.
If the administration vacillates and not using a clear decision, each side could find yourself being proper at totally different instances.
Though the four-year cycle is over, the query of when this bear market will finish stays unanswered. This era ends when Bitcoin regains its long-term shifting common, when institutional flows flip optimistic, and when the choices market stops pricing for defense.
Till then, the market is able to restrict the upside, and persistence is required. Even when institutional traders say it's bearish and hold shopping for.
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