The Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto market worry and greed index produced by CryptoQuant Explorer fell to five factors over the weekend.
That is the worst investor sentiment in 4 years because the crypto winter of 2022. It's additionally one of many scariest states in market historical past, but it surely then rebounded barely over the weekend, reaching 8 factors as of this writing on Monday, February 16, 2026.
Comparable ranges existed solely in occasions of nice pressurethe underside of the bear market in 2018, the decline earlier than the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, the influence of the closure of the FTX cryptocurrency alternate in 2022, and many others.
On a scale of 0 to 100, ranges above 80 on this index mirror excessive greed within the Bitcoin market. However, a quantity beneath 20 signifies excessive worry.
“This reveals that this isn’t a lightweight precaution. “This can be a mentality of give up,” emphasizes George Tung, an investor greatest identified on social networks as CryptosRus. “From a behavioral perspective, this quantities to basic loss aversion,” he famous in a Feb. 15 put up.
What does this sense include? “After a pointy decline, buyers favor security and delay re-entries to attend for affirmation. Sentiment usually lags worth. Even after markets stabilize, confidence rebuilds slowly,” the analyst says.
On this state of affairs, now we have a worry index and a greed index that point out excessive worry, however not at as low a stage as CryptoQuant. CoinMarketCap has a stage of 12, whereas Coinglass has a stage of 11, with each reaching a rating of 5 on totally different dates in February.
Every of those indicators measures market sentiment based mostly on quite a lot of information, together with volatility, futures markets, and messages on social networks. Nonetheless, CryptoQuant doesn’t make it clear precisely what components are wanted to carry out the calculation.
Excessive promoting stress regardless of no “disaster”
Lowest level on worry and greed index These usually coincide with main gross sales and buy alternatives.. These durations happen earlier than Bitcoin's main long-term positive aspects.
Though “excessive worry doesn’t assure quick restoration,” it has traditionally marked “the early levels of the worry course of.” bottomed out«CryptosRus is defined. This idea refers to a recalibration of buyers' positions and expectations.
“When crowds deal with avoiding additional ache somewhat than pursuing upside potential, markets usually find yourself nearer to depletion than growth. That feeling fades, and a brand new cycle quietly begins from there,” he explains.
Anyway, Excessive worry doesn’t imply Bitcoin can’t fall in worth. The truth is, the market all the time reaches its winter backside in cryptocurrencies not when it’s on this state, however generally after not at excessive worry ranges.
Different crypto winters have seen retail panic prevail because of catastrophic occasions such because the FTX chapter and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the present excessive worry wouldn’t come up within the face of a panorama of such magnitude.
As a substitute, there was a recalibration of buyers' positioning in several contexts. Amongst them, macroeconomic uncertainties and four-year historic patterns that may affect market sentiment stand out.
Historical past says 2026 shall be bearish for Bitcoin
Bitcoin may flip bearish in 2026 if the basic four-year sample continues. Bitcoin all the time reaches the tip of its uptrend the yr after the halving. This may be seen beneath.
The newest halving, which halves the quantity of BTC issued each 4 years, was in 2024. The worth is at present buying and selling round $68,000 (USD), 46% beneath the all-time excessive of $126,000 set in October 2025.
Traditionally, crypto winters have seen costs drop by round 80%. Nonetheless, every has minor modifications. On this sense, BTC’s decline on this cycle might not be over butNonetheless, it’s much less extreme than earlier than.
James Ford, economist and director of funding group Pragmatic Investor, mentioned: 75% drop from historic most is achievable. CriptoNoticias experiences that the value shall be lower than $40,000.
Nonetheless, it is very important notice that there isn’t any assure that previous occasions will repeat themselves. The truth is, numerous analysts declare that BTC's crypto winter might be milder because of the presence of institutional funding, which was not current earlier than.
