The current value motion for Bitcoin continues intently with the two-year Fibonacci mannequin. In keeping with analyst Cryptocon, the subsequent logic stage may very well be round $166,000.
abstract
- Bitcoin has persistently tracked Fibonacci's growth ranges since bottoming at $15,500 in late 2022, with key poses of $30,362, $46,831, $71,591 and $109,236.
- Crypto analyst Cryptocon tasks $166,754 as the subsequent logical stage primarily based on the 5.618 Fibonacci extension. This matches the earlier 52-54% spacing sample of the cycle.
- Institutional demand, notably from the US, is Spot Bitcoin ETFS, which presently holds practically $150 billion in property, and continues to assist upward value pressures.
- Analysts warn of attainable short-term pullbacks, with seasonal knowledge displaying September revisions in previous cycles and sentiment metrics suggesting elevated income.
Fibonacci's Bitcoin Rise Fingerprint
Bitcoin (BTC) has sparked all the standard market questions with its current all-time excessive of practically $123,000. Some folks suppose it has the highest. Others consider there’s extra room for progress.
As of this writing on August 4th, BTC had dropped by about 7% from its current peak, down round 4% over the previous seven days to round $114,500.
BTC Worth Chart | Supply: crypto.information
Nevertheless, broadly adopted analyst Cryptocon believes Bitcoin follows a recurring sample primarily based on Fibonacci growth. His mannequin presents a path that Bitcoin has already been happening for practically two years. And if that path continues, your subsequent vacation spot might not be a shock in any respect.
Each time Bitcoin fades, folks begin to worry the worst.
You’ll be able to see 123k right here, however this isn’t $166,754.
All breakouts on this cycle resulted in a full retest of the .618 extension.
5.618 is inevitable! pic.twitter.com/mafqt8mimm
– Cryptocon (@cryptocon_) August 1, 2025
The story begins in late 2022, when Bitcoin fell to round $15,500 after FTX collapsed. That was the low level of the present cycle. Cryptocon calls this retrace level zero.
From there, Bitcoin started to climb in levels. In April 2023, BTC reached round $30,362, according to the 1.618 Fibonacci growth. It paused at that stage, moved sideways for a number of months and climbed once more.
In January 2024, matching the two.618 extension, and after a slight pullback, Bitcoin held that stage as assist.
Two extra vital ranges adopted. In March and June 2024, Bitcoin touched on the three.618 extension for $71,591, not breaking by way of each instances. It was built-in, as was the early Fibonacci stage.
Then in January 2025 it broke previous that zone and reached $109,236, matching the 4.618 extension. BTC's current excessive of $123,000 is above that stage, however under the subsequent stage. And importantly, $123,000 just isn’t an growth of Fibonacci. It's within the meantime.
In keeping with Cryptocon, this can grow to be a transition zone. If the sample continues, the subsequent logical step is the 5.618 stage, which is $166,754.
Why Historical past nonetheless rhymes for $166,000
The Cryptocon mannequin might sound technical, however it's not new. The identical Fibonacci construction has additionally appeared within the earlier Bitcoin Cycle.
In 2013, Bitcoin peaked at round $1,150. This was a 5.618 extension from the 2012 breakout. In 2017, the highest got here at practically $20,000, surpassing the 4.618 stage from the 2015 low.
Even the 2021 cycle known as Many reached practically $69,000.
These repeated alignments counsel that Fibonacci ranges acted like stress factors the place Bitcoin pauses or reverses.
This brings us again to right now. These between $15,500 and $30,362 earned round 95%. From there, as much as $46, the 831 was about 54%. Then it was as much as $71, with 591 at an extra 53%. Roughly 52% added to $109,236 from $71,591.
These levels replicate how Bitcoin climbed in a well-defined burst, typically pulling again at every stage after which persevering with up. If the identical interval is utilized once more, a 52% improve from the final stage will end result within the subsequent goal of $166,754, matching the 5.618 extension.
There are additionally non-technical components that assist this concept. Bitcoin was lower in half in April 2024, leading to a decline in provide issued to miners. That is an occasion that led to traditionally larger costs the next 12 months.
After halving in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin recovered sharply over 12-18 months. We at the moment are in that post-harking window 16 months in the past.
In consequence, there’s a market that strikes alongside previous cycles, with each mathematical and macro powers pointing to the identical subsequent stage.
Macro actions and coverage shifts
Beforehand, Bitcoin Cycles had been primarily slower management over retail enthusiasm and change habits. Nevertheless, the present cycle is completely different. That is formed like technical indicators and on-chain patterns by liquidity flows, macroeconomic insurance policies and political orientations.
On the macro stage, the US Federal Reserve continues to carry rates of interest within the vary of 4.25-4.5%. Inflation has declined since its peak in 2022, however it’s sticky. Core inflation is about 3%, exceeding the Fed's 2% goal.
This delayed our stable dedication to fee discount. Financial knowledge reveals indicators of weakening, however central banks are cautious.
The key client value index report is scheduled for mid-August, with a forecast of two.9% in headline inflation and three% in core.
If these numbers are low, the market may start to cost potential fee reductions by the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, till then, insurance policies stay strict, with the market responding to knowledge moderately than guesses.
Regulatory points, the US has begun to sign modifications in tone. In July 2025, the Genius Act was lastly handed, offering a authorized framework for Stablecoins and defining digital asset classifications extra clearly.
At about the identical time, a pilot program known as Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was authorized for fundraising. This permits the federal authorities to carry Bitcoin as a part of its broader asset portfolio.
Enforcement motion has additionally been delayed because the SEC has suspended a number of instances. The course seems to be directed in direction of integration and regulation moderately than restriction.
ETF demand reveals how robust its integration is already. BlackRock's Ishares Bitcoin Belief presently holds roughly 740,000 BTC and has an estimated $85 billion in property. This is likely one of the greatest ETFs ever launched.
Whole property reached practically $150 billion throughout all US spot Bitcoin ETFs. This represents roughly 6.5% of Bitcoin's whole market capitalization, permitting a number of establishments to be managed for every of the 15 Bitcoins presently in circulation.
All of those assist the background of institutional demand with the ability to develop with out friction and growing demand.
Clues to Motion and What Comes Subsequent
The $166,000 objective drawn from Cryptocon's Fibonacci mannequin could seem purely structural, however current observations from different analysts counsel that the tempo of motion could be influenced by behavioral and seasonal variables.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted the constant seasonal traits noticed in earlier years after harnings. Bitcoin introduced income in each July and August, then revised in September, with a bounce in October.
In all previous post-Hernings (2013, 2017, 2021), #Bitcoin was inexperienced in July and August and purple in September.
To this point, this 12 months has been inexperienced July. If August is inexperienced as effectively, you could get a seasonal decline in September earlier than bounces in October. pic.twitter.com/sh8alrmjw7
– Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 2, 2025
The patterns appeared in 2013, 2017 and 2021. In every instance, a robust summer season interval gave option to short-term pullbacks earlier than the uptrend resumed.
Beforehand in 2025, the corporate has already closed with a revenue of seven.22%. If August continues to be excessive, the development may re-develop with a slight decline in September.
One other crypto analyst, Axel, provided a contrasting view targeted on market construction moderately than seasonality. He tracked the harmonic averages of two metrics: Nupl and MVRV.
The issue with the late stage bull cycle is that buyers' danger urge for food decreases. The chart reveals that metrics displayed values above 1.9 in March and December 2024, however now the metrics are forming a decrease peak and holders are starting to actively promote cash.
– Axel💎🙌Adler Jr (@axeladlerjr) August 4, 2025
In each March and December 2024, these metrics peaked at 1.95 and 1.99, respectively, simply earlier than the market correction. The newest studying is at 1.73, forming a decrease excessive.
Holders stay worthwhile, however many appear to be steadily decreasing their danger publicity. The that means is that whereas the uptrends might proceed, every new excessive may face stronger gross sales pressures.
Axel expects two extra rallys earlier than the market enters a slower section marked by decrease demand and extra steady revenue acquisitions.
Taken collectively, the technical mannequin nonetheless factors to $166,000, supported by historic cyclical habits and ongoing ETF demand. Nevertheless, short-term revisions and macroeconomic modifications can have an effect on how the market approaches that stage.
Occasions by no means unfold as analysts would anticipate. The crypto market is risky and momentum can transfer shortly. Commerce properly and make investments greater than you may afford to lose.
Disclosure: This text doesn’t characterize funding recommendation. The content material and supplies featured on this web page are for instructional functions solely.
