Prediction markets hit document weekly buying and selling volumes final week as merchants more and more positioned bets on main political occasions, crypto-related outcomes, and sports activities markets.
The expansion in exercise displays rising curiosity in event-based buying and selling throughout a number of sectors. Nevertheless, this speedy enlargement has additionally introduced new considerations about market fragmentation and insider buying and selling.
Prediction markets break quantity data whereas merchants' income and losses develop
Weekly buying and selling quantity within the prediction market hit an all-time excessive of $3.7 billion final week, in line with information from Dune. Weekly notional buying and selling quantity additionally surged to a brand new document of $5.57 billion.
This acceleration continues a development that started in 2025, when prediction market exercise started to outpace meme coin and non-fungible token (NFT) buying and selling volumes.
Prediction market weekly notional quantity. Supply: Dune
Consumer engagement has additionally improved. Weekly energetic customers peaked at 335,583 within the first week of January, whereas transaction numbers adopted an analogous upward trajectory.
Knowledge reveals that exercise stays extremely concentrated, with three classes accounting for almost all of weekly notional quantity. At Polymarket, buying and selling is primarily pushed by political occasions, sports activities, and crypto-related markets. Kalsi confirmed an analogous sample.
This focus can be mirrored on the particular person dealer stage. Lookonchain reported that polymarket dealer “beachboy4” made a dramatic turnaround from a lack of greater than $6.8 million to a revenue of roughly $395,000 after betting on sports activities outcomes.
Up to now two days alone, the dealer reportedly made greater than $10.5 million in income from 5 profitable predictions, fully recouping his earlier losses.
“That being stated, his stakes have skyrocketed, from beforehand lots of of hundreds of {dollars} per wager to now over $3 million per wager,” the publish added.
Nevertheless, not all merchants noticed related outcomes. Polymarket noticed two customers lose almost $10 million in lower than a month, highlighting the dangers related to event-based markets.
“Two Polymarket merchants wager huge on the 48-57 cent sports activities market and misplaced almost $10 million in lower than a month.0x4924: 346 predictions, 46.24% win fee, -$5.96 million in 24 days. bossoskil1: 65 predictions, win fee 41.54%, -404 in 11 days Tens of millions of {dollars}. At odds of about 50 cents, it's mainly like flipping a coin. Betting greater means dropping sooner,” Lookonchain stated.
Along with retail customers, main gamers within the trade are additionally trying to capitalize on this development. Coinbase is reportedly getting ready to launch its personal prediction market. Moreover, an affiliate of Gemini has obtained regulatory approval to start providing prediction markets to clients in the US.
Trump Media & Expertise Group has indicated its intention to enter this area as nicely. In December, sports activities platform Fanatics introduced the launch of a fan-driven prediction market platform by way of a strategic partnership with Crypto.com.
Rising considerations over prediction markets
Nevertheless, some specialists have expressed concern in regards to the market's sharp rise, calling it an “endgame” for the sector.
The ultimate part of prediction markets:
– Anybody can create a market
– Creators obtain charges from the amount they generateTotally personalised and no permissions required
— Nairolf (@0xNairolf) January 17, 2026
Some argue that the variety of markets shouldn’t be the central challenge. Slightly, liquidity stays the most important problem dealing with prediction markets.
“All this incentivizes is folks spamming a bunch of illiquid markets to earn the 5 cent creator charge,” stated Alex Finn.
Past fragmentation, insider buying and selling has emerged as one other urgent concern in prediction markets. Current occasions have raised questions on whether or not nonpublic data is driving market outcomes.
In a single case, three wallets on Polymarket recorded mixed income of greater than $630,000 after betting on the elimination of Nicolas Maduro, earlier than his arrest was introduced. Elsewhere, a dealer reportedly made almost $1 million on bets associated to Google's 2025 “12 months of search” outcomes.
The same sample was noticed for leisure occasions. On Polymarket, customers positioned 27 bets on the end result of the Golden Globes, and 26 had been settled in money. These unusually correct outcomes have elevated considerations that insider information is influencing exercise on the prediction platform.
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