As of 8:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $110,300, and prediction markets have been buzzing with bets on whether or not the crypto heavyweight would preserve that place into November or hit new highs.
Polimarket November Stake
The favored forecasting platform PolymarketWhat is going to the worth of Bitcoin be in November?”, merchants have wager a complete of over $1.2 million throughout outcomes.
Present favourite: 77% probability Bitcoin will rise above $115,000, with “sure” shares buying and selling at 77 cents. The percentages elevated by 5 proportion factors in a single day, indicating confidence that BTC will firmly preserve its present vary.
Present value of Bitcoin as of Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. Japanese Time.
Within the center bracket, the chance of Bitcoin clearing $125,000 is up 4% to 29%, whereas the chance of breaking $130,000 is slim at 14%. Merchants see a modest 7% probability of BTC reaching $135,000 and solely a 4% probability of it exceeding $140,000. A moonshot wager the place Bitcoin reaches $200,000 this month is handled as a protracted shot, with odds of 1% and complete quantity of simply $482,800.
For bears, the motion is even thinner. There’s a 34% probability that Bitcoin will fall beneath $100,000, however the odds drop sharply past that. There may be solely a 15% probability that it is going to be lower than $95,000, and a ten% probability that it is going to be lower than $90,000. Above $80,000, it's barely below 3%.
In different phrases, polymarket merchants are pricing in resilience, not capitulation.
Kalshi's year-end forecast
On Karshi, a US prediction alternate, merchants can title their markets as “How far will Bitcoin fall this yr?“A complete of roughly $5.76 million in trades is predicted, making it one of the lively crypto markets in Karshi. With the median forecast hovering round $101,000, the chance of a significant failure is sort of stacked up.”
Kalsi's odds recommend a 47% probability that Bitcoin will fall 2 factors this week and fall beneath $100,000. There may be solely a 20% chance of betting on a deeper decline beneath $90,000, whereas the chance is just 13% on the sub-$80,000 stage. Merchants see solely a 6% probability of BTC falling beneath $70,000, with excessive bearish outcomes beneath $60,000 or $50,000 priced in at 4% and three%, respectively.
Prediction market bets on Kalsi.
Primarily, the Kalsi crowd sees a stable flooring forming shut to 6 figures. Each exchanges are dominated by bulls, with speculative vitality targeted on whether or not Bitcoin can’t solely preserve however develop its five-digit dominance in direction of the tip of this yr.
Between Polimarket’s short-term optimism and Kalsi’s long-term secure positioning, merchants appear assured that Bitcoin received’t make any new deep lows this cycle. The unfold of possibilities throughout each platforms suggests a unstable however upward pattern in November, with the most definitely vary between $105,000 and $125,000.
Present information reveals Bitcoin merchants are betting on sustained power slightly than meteoric highs. With open curiosity and prediction market quantity reaching document ranges, sentiment has shifted from pondering “Is Bitcoin going to the moon?” “How lengthy are you able to preserve this power?”
FAQ
What do Polymarket merchants predict for Bitcoin in November?They provide Bitcoin a 77% probability of staying above $115,000, and the heavy quantity helps that outcome.
How a lot cash is being staked on Polymarket's Bitcoin market?A complete of greater than $1.2 million is unfold throughout November's value outcomes.
What’s Kalshi's prediction for the year-end low value of Bitcoin? Karshi merchants have pegged their forecast at $101,000, with solely a 47% probability that BTC will fall beneath $100,000.
Is Bitcoin anticipated to fall beneath $90,000 this yr? Karshi merchants put solely a 20% probability that Bitcoin will fall beneath $90,000 by the tip of the yr.
