Based on the figures, the prediction market recorded its second highest notional buying and selling quantity in two years. Based on information compiled by Dune Analytics, roughly seven platforms had $25.7 billion in notional buying and selling quantity in March, with many of the exercise targeting Polymarket and Kalshi.
Necessary factors:
- Dune Analytics had buying and selling quantity of $25.7 billion in March. As exercise turns into extra concentrated, polymarket and kalshi turn into dominant.
- Polymarket recorded 115 million transactions in March, whereas Karshi had 88 million. This dimension signifies additional market adoption.
- CFTC oversight and US lawmakers are focusing on Polymarket, a market with open curiosity approaching $940 million.
Polymarket and Kalshi drive billions in buying and selling quantity
Dune.com information compiled by @datadashboards reveals prediction market quantity continues to hit new highs. Statistics for January 2026 present that the month marks the very best level in notional quantity, reaching a report $26.75 billion, adopted by February's whole of $23.24 billion. The statistics for March have been finalized, and the month recorded $25.7 billion, making it the second-highest month on report.
Because the month is incomplete, when mixed with April's $3.9 billion, the cumulative whole from January 1, 2024 reaches $162.64 billion. March's numbers spanned seven totally different markets, whereas Karshi and Polimarket led the sector with $13 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Polymarket buying and selling quantity is primarily pushed by politics, adopted by cryptocurrencies, sports activities, and world occasions.
The Dune dashboard reveals Kalsi seeing elevated exercise throughout the financial system, finance, and politics, whereas additionally increasing into area of interest areas equivalent to local weather, climate, and transportation. Following the headline numbers introduced by Polymarket and Kalshi, Crypto.com, Opinion, Limitless, Predict.enjoyable, and Extra time.io make up the remainder of the cohort.
March noticed a pointy enhance in exercise, reaching roughly 207 million transactions throughout all tracked prediction markets. This represents a major month-on-month enhance in comparison with February's 155 million. As soon as once more, Polymarket and Kalshi took the highest spot, with Polymarket accounting for 115 million transfers and Kalshi recording 88 million.
As of this writing, the prediction markets have a mixed open curiosity of roughly $939.86 million, with exercise closely targeting two platforms. Kalshi tops the record with $487.21 million, adopted by Polimarket with $422.09 million. Which means that this pair accounts for almost all of in the present day's whole positions. Smaller platforms had been far behind, with Predict.enjoyable at $19.51 million and Opinion at $10.38 million.
The remaining venues' contributions had been small, with Limitless contributing roughly $666,520 and different venues totaling simply $3,760, indicating a pronounced top-heavy market construction. Polymarket and Karshi are attracting this demand regardless of some ongoing headwinds, together with sure market-related disputes associated to the US-Iranian battle. Democratic lawmakers are primarily against prediction markets and are pushing laws geared toward growing oversight.
The 2 main platforms additionally deal with state-level rules that battle with federal steerage, notably from the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC). Nonetheless, regardless of criticism and the prospect of regulatory motion, open curiosity and notional worth proceed to develop in Polymarket and Calci. Whereas it stays unclear how lengthy this momentum will proceed, it’s clear that prediction markets are right here to remain.
