Bitcoin (BTC) was in a position to see its strongest six-month efficiency in historical past within the second half of 2025, pushed by a file influx of ETFs, coverage dangers to the Federal Reserve, and elevated adoption of sovereignty.
In a July 2nd analysis notice, Kendrick predicted that ETF inflows and company finance ministry purchases would exceed the second quarter degree of 245,000 BTC in each the third and fourth quarters.
Lenders maintained their earlier forecast that Bitcoin had reached $200,000 by the tip of the yr, and up to date Bitcoin's third quarter outlook with a value forecast of $135,000.
He added that Bitcoin ETF flows are already elevating expectations and the market is starting to appreciate that post-harving value patterns for crypto stay intact regardless of earlier questions.
Coverage Tail, Sovereignty Buy
Kendrick additionally highlighted that along with the surge in purchases, the market faces an elevated threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Based on Kendrick:
“The ETF influx and the Treasury movement of companies are all US policy-related.”
Additional boosting the outlook for Bitcoin is the passing of the US Genius Act, which just lately secured Senate approval. Customary Chartered famous that such legal guidelines will improve laws readability, promote wider adoption, and additional combine Crypto into the standard monetary system.
Kendrick additionally predicted a rise within the adoption of Bitcoin sovereignty, saying that proof of national-level purchases would help long-term demand and value stability, just like the influence seen from the buildup of the Company Treasury in current months.
Half cycle principle is over
The memo additionally addresses market considerations in regards to the half cycle of Bitcoin, an occasion scheduled each 4 years, chopping mining compensation in half and traditionally affecting value patterns.
Kendrick defined that within the earlier cycle, Bitcoin costs fell about 18 months after Harving.
Nevertheless, Customary Chartered believes the dynamics have modified. Kendrick writes {that a} issue that’s not current in earlier cycles, because of a powerful inflow of ETFs and the acquisition of the Ministry of Company Treasury, may keep away from Bitcoin's typical post-harving decline.
He stated that costs are prone to be unstable from late September to early October because the market focuses on this historic sample, however predicted that the upward development will resume on the finish of the yr, pushed by these new structural demand elements.
Kendrick concluded that the approaching months will show how Bitcoin has labored past the earlier half-cycle habits.
“Buckle up.”
It’s talked about on this article
(TagStoTRASSLATE) Bitcoin (T) US (T) Adoption (T) Evaluation (T) Crypto (T) Operate (T) Macro
