Somebody constructed a dropping Polymarket bot that solely spends cash on “no” trades, i.e. bets that an occasion won’t happen.
A bit-known reality is that about three-quarters of all bets on Polymarket finish in no.
Artist and former Apple researcher Sterling Crispin turned that statistic right into a buying and selling bot and open sourced the code. He unveiled the bot, dubbed Nothing Ever Occurs, on April 12, warning his followers to observe the journey, however to not count on any revenue.
This announcement went viral.
“Why predict the longer term when 73.4% of all Polymarkets say no?” Crispin wrote. “Cease pondering. Nothing will occur.”
That quantity is fairly shut. In keeping with Polymarket's personal accuracy web page, throughout the solved market, the proportion of options is 73.3% no and 26.7% sure. In different phrases, the paper is, in a way, a direct results of the platform.
Polymarket eliminates loopholes in Bitcoin quantitative buying and selling
Chance doesn’t assure revenue
Nevertheless, understanding that three-quarters of the outcomes will resolve to “no” doesn’t alone create a worthwhile technique.
Polymarket occasion contract Capacity to commerce with built-in Sure and No execution costsadjusted for different possibilities of singular occasions occurring.
For instance, think about that when you’ve got no open to commerce at $0.75, you’re going to get again $1 in the event you win. This 2,500 foundation level revenue barely covers the 26.7% of the time your wager may lose fully.
Crispin appears to grasp that, too. After the unique submit went viral, he admitted, “This ought to be purchased beneath $0.73 in the long run, and the bot has a configurable cap of $0.65, checking for brand spanking new market purchases nearer to $0.50.”
The $0.65 cap means the bot will solely purchase if the worth of No is 65% or much less on Polymarket. It seems to be for markets the place the gang has not but priced in the potential for a no-resolution base price.
The GitHub repository has a disclaimer in daring italics. Use for leisure functions solely and at your individual threat.
A screenshot of the dashboard connected to the unique submit confirmed a $2,859 portfolio, primarily for demonstration functions. This code repository has over 400 stars and is shipped beneath a public area copyright license.
Introduction: Nothing occurs
@Polymarket bot that robotically buys “no” and retains resolved for all markets besides sports activities.
Why predict the longer term when 73.4% of all Polymarkets say no? Cease pondering. nothing occurs. https://t.co/wLUfZkRbif pic.twitter.com/pMCePqtqtz
— Sterling Crispin 🕊️ (@sterlingcrispin) April 12, 2026
One more bot loses cash on Polymarket
An on-chain evaluation of two.5 million wallets by researcher Andrey Sergeenkov discovered the next: 84.1% of wallets that traded on Polymarket misplaced cash.. Solely 0.033% earned greater than $100,000.
The best technique possible, i.e. betting “no” and strolling away, outperforms most customers of the platform.
Polymarket leans towards the premise of attracting media consideration. Extremely, the platform is internet hosting a parlay marketplace for the “Nothing Ever Occurs” collection.
These parlays bundle unlikely occasions (China invades Taiwan, Bitcoin reaches $1 million, Trump takes Greenland) and power merchants to wager that they received't occur.
The 2026 annual version has a quantity of $489,000, with a value of “Nothing” of 56%.
Unsurprisingly, the parlay didn't repay. Jerome Powell's model resolves to “no,” that means one thing occurred. So did the US Strike Version after American navy motion met one of many set off circumstances.
Crispin is just not your typical crypto dealer. He describes himself as a conceptual artist and software program engineer, and says he beforehand spent years at Apple, the place he contributed to the neurotechnology patent for the Imaginative and prescient Professional headset.
