On Might fifteenth, US Treasury yields hit a 12-month excessive, and Bitcoin was pushed again towards $80,500 the day after the Transparency Act Committee vote.
On Might 15, U.S. Treasury yields soared to 12-month highs, with the 10-year notice hitting 4.54% and the two-year notice rising to its highest degree since mid-2025. The transfer got here a day after the Senate Banking Committee authorised the Transparency Act in a bipartisan vote of 15-9, sending Bitcoin briefly above $82,000. By Friday, macro pressures had reversed most of these positive factors.
April CPI information confirmed inflation operating at 3.8%, confirming {that a} fee lower won’t materialize in 2026. The market at the moment places the chance that the Fed will elevate charges by December at greater than 44% (present charges are 3.50% to three.75%), based on CME FedWatch information. As of early 2026, merchants have been pricing in not less than two fee cuts by the top of the 12 months.
What increased yields imply for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is a non-yielding asset that competes straight with Treasury securities, which at the moment provide extra engaging dollar-denominated returns. As tracked by crypto.information, the “extended excessive rate of interest” surroundings compresses valuation multiples, curbs speculative extra, and makes it troublesome for marginal capital to movement into high-beta crypto belongings.
One partially offsetting sign is the tokenized authorities bond market, the place the full quantity locked hit a document of over $15 billion on Might 15, based on rwa.xyz information. The identical yield surroundings weighing down Bitcoin can be attracting institutional traders for on-chain entry to high-yield authorities bonds.
Bitcoin is buying and selling close to $80,592, beneath its 200-day SMA of $82,228, and failed to shut above the SMA for the fifth consecutive time this month. As documented by crypto.information, the hawkish macro backdrop retains Bitcoin delicate to modifications within the Fed's tone in addition to legislative developments. If the 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise in the direction of 5%, the headwinds for non-yielding belongings will turn out to be even stronger.
