Alex Leishman, CEO and founding father of River, offered evaluation based mostly on first-party and public knowledge to contextualize the value decline recorded since early 2026. The manager stated that though the asset has fallen considerably from all-time highs, the present state of affairs may be very totally different from earlier Bitcoin (BTC) bear markets.
Whereas attending an enterprise Bitcoin occasion, Leishman emphasised that regardless of the perceived disaster, the numbers are telling. It’s small in scale in comparison with different historic cycles.
“We’re in a bear market of kinds. “Bitcoin's worth has fallen almost 40% for the reason that starting of 2025. However this is only one of many bear markets in Bitcoin's historical past, and actually one of many smallest,” he stated.
Leishman stated the elemental distinction throughout this era is the profile of the customer. In keeping with river knowledge, people have been appearing as “sellers”; Monetary establishments are making the most of the decline to make financial savings.
“This bear market is exclusive. What makes it particular is that that is the primary bear market within the historical past of Bitcoin the place institutional adoption is accelerating,” the businessman defined, including that “the individuals who purchased Bitcoin in 2025 had been overwhelmingly institutional buyers: companies, funds, and governments.”
The next graph reveals varied Bitcoin bear markets and their whole declines since 2010.
Thousands and thousands of Bitcoins will probably be within the fingers of establishments in 2035
Leishman's evaluation additionally recommended a change accountable for Bitcoin possession. Which means if the community was dominated by retail customers in the course of the first 10 years of the asset; 2020 marked a turning level with the entry of actors like Technique..
The manager predicted that if present traits proceed, “half of all Bitcoin might be within the fingers of establishments by 2035.” That is an estimate which means an extra 9 million BTC will probably be accrued in 10 years. Taking that into consideration, there are at present greater than 2 million cash in institutional custody, in accordance with knowledge from BitcoinTreasuries.
This motion is supported by conventional monetary infrastructure. Leishman highlighted that 90% of prime registered funding advisors (RIAs) within the US have already got positions in Bitcoin. Moreover, greater than 60% of main banks (together with Citi, Financial institution of America, and PNC) have developed associated merchandise.
Nonetheless, he cautioned that publicity stays minimal because the proportion of BTC in funding advisors is “nonetheless a small fraction”. Solely 0.006% of belongings they handlein accordance with their figures.
Leishman additionally analyzed the habits of mainstream firms that use Bitcoin not solely as a speculative funding but additionally as a retailer of wealth. He stated River's company buyer base, which incorporates all the things from farms to meals stalls, had doubled within the final yr.
“These companies are usually managed by house owners who’re already Bitcoiners and have determined to make use of BTC for long-term storage of their firm's belongings. In actual fact, 63% of them plan to carry their Bitcoin indefinitely,” he highlighted.
For administration, the expansion of this working firm reveals that the elemental worth of BTC is permeating the actual financial system. Past worth fluctuations.
Regardless of Leishman's institutional optimism, technical and on-chain indicator evaluation factors to a way more cautious outlook within the brief time period. Analysts like Nick O'Neill have recommended that Bitcoin might attain $40,000 by the top of March.
Equally, skilled dealer Willy Wu issued a warning on February 18, noting that the bearish pattern is rising as volatility spikes. “Dangerous information for long-time bulls: Bitcoin continues to pattern decrease,” Wu wrote. As reported by CriptoNoticias, he identified that this bear market will formally start in 2026.
Within the face of those indicators of technical weak point, Alex Leishman makes the case that system fundamentals take priority over short-term metrics. “I consider this market decline is short-term and that the following cycle will proceed to be pushed by institutional adoption by each working firms and unallocated funding belongings,” he concluded.
