In response to Darius Moukhtarzade, a researcher at 21Shares, the outdated “token technique” is over, saying that launching excessive FDV, low float with governance “meme cash” not works.
Moukhtarzade defined that the principle purpose why token launches fail is the widening “hole between sentiment and fundamentals.” Nevertheless, fundamentals stay sturdy amid a rising international consumer base, elevated regulatory readability, elevated institutional participation, and a scalable infrastructure that helps long-term adoption.
Then again, market sentiment is extraordinarily destructive. That is evidenced by excessive concern ranges, repeated failures of current token technology occasions (TGEs), and dilution of capital attributable to explosive development within the variety of tokens.
As well as, a shift in investor concentrate on AI and a deep-seated mistrust of the conduct of previous mining tasks are additional dampening demand. This disconnect signifies that even essentially sound tasks battle to draw liquidity and curiosity, thus inflicting token launches to underperform regardless of macro tailwinds.
New token playbook
To deal with this, Mouktarzade proposed a framework that focuses on designing tokens in order that customers can earn extra earnings by holding them quite than promoting them instantly.
The framework emphasizes that many current fashions create a “race to the exit”, with holders competing to be the primary to promote, and as a substitute in search of alignment of groups, buyers, and customers to profit collectively as worth is constructed over time.
We additionally concentrate on tying the worth of a token to actual fundamentals comparable to income technology quite than hype, distributing that worth on to holders (e.g. by income distribution), and treating possession as a participation within the development of the protocol, which means that long-term holding results in larger contributions and rewards.
Token launch standing
Token launches in 2025 considerably underperformed. In response to the information, roughly 85% of tasks are buying and selling beneath their TGE valuation, which means practically 4 out of 5 are within the purple. Solely 15.3% of the tokens are worthwhile.
In response to Moukhtarzade, regardless of the tailwinds within the business, there are some critical execution errors which are inflicting token launches to stagnate. Talking on the EthCC convention, 21Shares researchers defined that the large downside is simply too excessive pricing, with tasks being launched at inflated FDVs with restricted circulating provide. This finally ends up making a mismatch between non-public valuations and what the general public market desires to assist.
On the similar time, founder overconfidence usually causes groups to disregard broader market circumstances and launch into weak or bearish environments the place demand is already constrained. One other essential mistake is underestimating the promoting stress in token technology occasions, as airdrop recipients, early buyers, and liquidity suppliers are inclined to revenue rapidly. This creates extra downward stress.
Additionally, many tasks begin too early earlier than reaching product-market match or sustainable income, making the token a substitute quite than a complement to actual traction.
